The second Quarter-final of IEM Kraków 2026 is a clash of two European titans moving in different directions. MOUZ (#4) enters as the steady, tactical machine, while G2 (#10) is still finding its identity after the post-Major roster shuffle.
Match Details
Time: 13:00 CET | Stage: Quarter-final (LAN) | Format: BO3
| Team | World Rank | Recent Form | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| G2 | #10 | 1.11 Team Rating | 51.9% |
| MOUZ | #4 | 1.11 Team Rating | 48.1% |
The Veto: Strategic Chess
The map pool for this series is fascinating. MOUZ has targeted Overpass, a map where G2 has struggled significantly (33% win rate), while G2 is leaning on the individual heroics possible on Dust2.
- MOUZ removed Anubis
- G2 removed Nuke
- MOUZ picked Overpass (G2’s weak link)
- G2 picked Dust2 (MOUZ’s 67% win rate vs G2’s comfort)
- Mirage was left over (The Decider)
Battle of the Stars: HeavyGod vs. xertioN
The statistical mirror between these two entry-fraggers is uncanny. Both are pillars of their respective teams, providing the opening impact needed to break sites.
| Stat (Past 3 Months) | HeavyGod (G2) | xertioN (MOUZ) |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Kills Per Round | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| ADR | 77.8 | 82.7 |
| KAST | 73.9% | 73.9% |
The Storylines
1. The MOUZ Mental Block
Looking at the Head-to-Head history, G2 has a massive mountain to climb. In their last seven maps played against each other across 2025, MOUZ has won six. G2’s only victory was a narrow 13-11 on Inferno. Can SunPayus and MATYS change the narrative?
2. The Spinx Factor
MOUZ’s addition of Spinx has given them a late-round composure that G2 currently lacks. While huNter- remains a veteran presence for G2, the tactical depth of the MOUZ lineup (featuring Jimpphat and torzsi) often overwhelms G2’s “star-power” approach.
3. The Mirage Decider
If this series goes to Map 3, G2 actually holds the statistical advantage. They boast a 75% win rate on Mirage over the last 3 months, whereas MOUZ has struggled at 25%.
Crucial Note: For G2 to win, they must survive the MOUZ pick of Overpass and push it to the decider.
The Takeaway
MOUZ is the more “complete” team, but G2 is the more dangerous one when their backs are against the wall. The public slightly favors G2 (51.9%), likely betting on the high ceiling of malbsMd and SunPayus in a playoff environment. However, history favors the young mice of MOUZ.
My Pick: MOUZ 2-1 (Winning Overpass and a close Dust2).
About Nick S
Nick S has been following pro Counter-Strike since 2009. He witnessed the franchise transform from a grassroots scene to a global esports phenomenon. Nick provides high-level analysis on tactics and trends.